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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. [12] Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in ...
It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS), covering North America and also having 20 members plus control, runs out 72 hours.
An example of a two-day weather forecast in the visual style that an American newspaper might use. Temperatures are given in Fahrenheit. Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, [85] and widespread hail damage.
The highest natural ground surface temperature ever recorded may have been an alleged reading of 93.9 °C (201.0 °F) at Furnace Creek, California, United States, on 15 July 1972. [ 7] In 2011, a ground temperature of 84 °C (183.2 °F) was recorded in Port Sudan, Sudan. [ 8] The theoretical maximum possible ground surface temperature has been ...
The GFS model is a FV3 model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the days 0-16 days. In the vertical, the model is divided into 127 layers and extends to the mesopause (roughly ~80 km), and temporally, it produces forecast output every hour for the first 120 hours, [ 1] three hourly through day 10, and 12 hourly through day 16.
Wetterpark Offenbach, Germany. The Deutscher Wetterdienst (German pronunciation: [ˌdɔʏ̯ʧɐ ˈvɛtɐdiːnst]) or DWD for short, is the German Meteorological Service, based in Offenbach am Main, Germany, which monitors weather and meteorological conditions over Germany and provides weather services for the general public and for nautical, aviational, hydrometeorological or agricultural ...
For this reason, the former German record of 42.6 °C / 108.7 °F measured on July 25, 2019 at Lingen (Lower Saxony) is not listed. It was cancelled in December 2020 by the responsible station operator DWD (German weather service). [35]
These uncertainties limit forecast model accuracy to about six days into the future. [81] Edward Epstein recognized in 1969 that the atmosphere could not be completely described with a single forecast run due to inherent uncertainty, and proposed a stochastic dynamic model that produced means and variances for the state of the atmosphere. [82]
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