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PHOTO: 538's new presidential general election polling average showing Vice President Kamala Harris with 45 percent, former President Donald Trump with 43.5 percent, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with ...
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race. Source of poll aggregation.
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2]
National polls tend to be more reliable; on the state level, it’s hard for pollsters to drill down on the most representative mix of respondents (i.e., one that will have the same demographic ...
PHOTO: Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate shakes hands with a supporter during his primary election night watch party in Westlake, Ohio, March 19, 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. [ 1] Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose electors to the Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...