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Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [edit] Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race. Source of poll aggregation.
Latest poll updates. Alicja Hagopian. September 9, 2024 at 9:25 AM. In less than 57 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the ...
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
The latest poll from FiveThirtyEight, a website focusing on polling analysis, politics, economics, has Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over Donald Trump in a national poll on Monday. Harris ...
Anytime you see a poll out in the wild, we recommend following these 10 steps to help put it into context and understand what it means for the election.*. 1. Check who conducted the poll. Some ...
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [2]