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Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral College and national popular vote.
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election. This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning.
Electoral College Forecast. To win the Presidency, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available electoral votes, distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to...