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Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3] Effectively, this overcomes the 'infinite error' issue. [ 4 ]
The figure illustrates the percentile rank computation and shows how the 0.5 × F term in the formula ensures that the percentile rank reflects a percentage of scores less than the specified score. For example, for the 10 scores shown in the figure, 60% of them are below a score of 4 (five less than 4 and half of the two equal to 4) and 95% are ...
(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
Excel does some rounding and / or 'snap to zero' for most of its results, in average chopping the last 3 bits of the IEEE double representation. This behavior can be switched of by setting the formula in parentheses: = ( 1 + 2^-52 - 1 ). You will see that even that small value survives.
A percentage change is a way to express a change in a variable. It represents the relative change between the old value and the new one. [6]For example, if a house is worth $100,000 today and the year after its value goes up to $110,000, the percentage change of its value can be expressed as = = %.
The average absolute deviation (AAD) of a data set is the average of the absolute deviations from a central point. It is a summary statistic of statistical dispersion or variability. In the general form, the central point can be a mean , median , mode , or the result of any other measure of central tendency or any reference value related to the ...
In ordinary language, an average is a single number or value that best represents a set of data. The type of average taken as most typically representative of a list of numbers is the arithmetic mean – the sum of the numbers divided by how many numbers are in the list. For example, the mean average of the numbers 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9 (summing to ...